Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of Earth's temperature
Περίληψη
Τύπος
Είδος δημοσίευσης σε συνέδριο
Είδος περιοδικού
peer reviewed
Είδος εκπαιδευτικού υλικού
Όνομα συνεδρίου
Όνομα περιοδικού
Physica a-Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications
Όνομα βιβλίου
Σειρά βιβλίου
Έκδοση βιβλίου
Συμπληρωματικός/δευτερεύων τίτλος
Περιγραφή
Statistical processes with long-term persistence (LTP) offer a promising approach to modeling the natural dynamics of Earth's temperature. One Such process, the family of 1/f-noises, is used here to assess the plausibility of a natural origin for recent global warming. Following earlier studies, a model of natural variability with UP is parameterized via paleoclimate reconstructions. The method developed here resolves a number of limitations in existing studies, primarily the problem of inaccuracies in estimating the spectral exponent of LTP. The output of the model is compared with the observed rate of temperature rise (0.61 degrees C/century between 1850 and 2007 for Northern hemispheric land air temperatures). We find that rates comparable with the observed global warming are very rarely generated by the model of natural variability (the probability is less than 2.3 x 10(-4)). Thus, natural agencies are not a Plausible explanation for the observed global warming unless all the paleoclimate reconstructions through Which the model is parameterized are underestimating natural variance by a factor of at least four. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Περιγραφή
Λέξεις-κλειδιά
long-term persistence, climate change, northern-hemisphere temperatures, time-series, climate-change, ecological variability, hurst phenomenon, 1/f family, range, noise, millennium, resolution
Θεματική κατηγορία
Παραπομπή
Σύνδεσμος
<Go to ISI>://000265885900027
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0378437109001654/1-s2.0-S0378437109001654-main.pdf?_tid=ffef34972d56bcba39356841a15ebcc8&acdnat=1336634627_a0c694683fd59f27d415c3d1765277d5
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0378437109001654/1-s2.0-S0378437109001654-main.pdf?_tid=ffef34972d56bcba39356841a15ebcc8&acdnat=1336634627_a0c694683fd59f27d415c3d1765277d5
Γλώσσα
en
Εκδίδον τμήμα/τομέας
Όνομα επιβλέποντος
Εξεταστική επιτροπή
Γενική Περιγραφή / Σχόλια
Ίδρυμα και Σχολή/Τμήμα του υποβάλλοντος
Πανεπιστήμιο Ιωαννίνων. Σχολή Επιστημών και Τεχνολογιών. Τμήμα Βιολογικών Εφαρμογών και Τεχνολογιών