Statistically significant meta-analyses of clinical trials have modest credibility and inflated effects
Φόρτωση...
Ημερομηνία
Συγγραφείς
Pereira, T. V.
Ioannidis, J. P.
Τίτλος Εφημερίδας
Περιοδικό ISSN
Τίτλος τόμου
Εκδότης
Περίληψη
Τύπος
Είδος δημοσίευσης σε συνέδριο
Είδος περιοδικού
peer-reviewed
Είδος εκπαιδευτικού υλικού
Όνομα συνεδρίου
Όνομα περιοδικού
J Clin Epidemiol
Όνομα βιβλίου
Σειρά βιβλίου
Έκδοση βιβλίου
Συμπληρωματικός/δευτερεύων τίτλος
Περιγραφή
OBJECTIVE: To assess whether nominally statistically significant effects in meta-analyses of clinical trials are true and whether their magnitude is inflated. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2005 (issue 4) and 2010 (issue 1) were used. We considered meta-analyses with binary outcomes and four or more trials in 2005 with P<0.05 for the random-effects odds ratio (OR). We examined whether any of these meta-analyses had updated counterparts in 2010. We estimated the credibility (true-positive probability) under different prior assumptions and inflation in OR estimates in 2005. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-one meta-analyses in 2005 were eligible, and 80 had additional trials included by 2010. The effect sizes (ORs) were smaller in the updating data (2005-2010) than in the respective meta-analyses in 2005 (median 0.85-fold, interquartile range [IQR]: 0.66-1.06), even more prominently for meta-analyses with less than 300 events in 2005 (median 0.67-fold, IQR: 0.54-0.96). Mean credibility of the 461 meta-analyses in 2005 was 63-84% depending on the assumptions made. Credibility estimates changed >20% in 19-31 (24-39%) of the 80 updated meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Most meta-analyses with nominally significant results pertain to truly nonnull effects, but exceptions are not uncommon. The magnitude of observed effects, especially in meta-analyses with limited evidence, is often inflated.
Περιγραφή
Λέξεις-κλειδιά
Bias (Epidemiology), Clinical Trials as Topic/*standards, Health Services Research/methods/standards, Humans, *Meta-Analysis as Topic
Θεματική κατηγορία
Παραπομπή
Σύνδεσμος
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21454050
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0895435611000096/1-s2.0-S0895435611000096-main.pdf?_tid=850ed0e83aa218ff99419c07f5ba70ba&acdnat=1333363381_46c982d4ce43cdc44491c0772f59f1d7
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0895435611000096/1-s2.0-S0895435611000096-main.pdf?_tid=850ed0e83aa218ff99419c07f5ba70ba&acdnat=1333363381_46c982d4ce43cdc44491c0772f59f1d7
Γλώσσα
en
Εκδίδον τμήμα/τομέας
Όνομα επιβλέποντος
Εξεταστική επιτροπή
Γενική Περιγραφή / Σχόλια
Ίδρυμα και Σχολή/Τμήμα του υποβάλλοντος
Πανεπιστήμιο Ιωαννίνων. Σχολή Επιστημών Υγείας. Τμήμα Ιατρικής